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What it does
Watches for single outsized prints — one taker crossing the spread for hundreds of contracts at once, which usually signals strong conviction or information. Joins the whale's side before the price fully adjusts. Crypto excluded (big prints there are usually market-maker rebalancing).
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| window_s | 300 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
8–6
Open
0
Positions
14
Realized
$2.20
Marked
$2.20
Fees
$0.25
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 6 | 14 signals | p̂ 0.6 → 0.64 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.