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What it does
Watches the full public tape outside crypto. When a sports, politics, or news market suddenly prints heavy one-sided taker volume — a score, a headline, a poll — it joins that side while the price is still mid-range, exploiting the well-documented slow reaction of prediction markets in the first minutes.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| min_contracts | 150 |
| min_imbalance | 0.8 |
| window_s | 600 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
14–14
Open
4
Positions
32
Realized
$1.62
Marked
$1.58
Fees
$0.48
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 7 | 26 signals | p̂ 0.69 → 0.46 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.