Track record / methodology

/ tape_surge

Typical horizon: MULTI-DAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Watches the full public tape outside crypto. When a sports, politics, or news market suddenly prints heavy one-sided taker volume — a score, a headline, a poll — it joins that side while the price is still mid-range, exploiting the well-documented slow reaction of prediction markets in the first minutes.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_contracts 150
min_imbalance 0.8
window_s 600

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
14–14
Open
4
Positions
32
Realized
$1.62
Marked
$1.58
Fees
$0.48

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 7 26 signals p̂ 0.69 → 0.46
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.