We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
What it does
The sniper's mirror: when the market prices a bracket well ABOVE what the historical move distribution supports (usually excitement after a sharp move), it buys NO — selling the overpriced outcome.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| min_edge | 15 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
473–299
Open
3
Positions
775
Realized
$23.04
Marked
$22.80
Fees
$9.71
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 2 | 4 signals | p̂ 0.18 → 0.25 |
| bucket 3 | 16 signals | p̂ 0.27 → 0.06 |
| bucket 4 | 30 signals | p̂ 0.34 → 0.13 |
| bucket 5 | 43 signals | p̂ 0.46 → 0.21 |
| bucket 6 | 44 signals | p̂ 0.55 → 0.41 |
| bucket 7 | 72 signals | p̂ 0.65 → 0.39 |
| bucket 8 | 90 signals | p̂ 0.75 → 0.48 |
| bucket 9 | 144 signals | p̂ 0.86 → 0.67 |
| bucket 10 | 327 signals | p̂ 0.97 → 0.73 |
| bucket 11 | 20 signals | p̂ 1.13 → 0.7 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.