Track record / methodology

/ pair_divergence

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

BTC, ETH, and SOL move together minute to minute. When one asset's 15-minute "up" market prices far richer than a correlated partner's in the same window, it buys the cheap laggard, betting the pair re-converges — which is the norm.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
301–423
Open
4
Positions
728
Realized
$23.34
Marked
$21.99
Fees
$2.28

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 6 111 signals p̂ 0.6 → 0.49
bucket 7 614 signals p̂ 0.63 → 0.4
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.