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What it does
Watches for brand-new markets in news categories (politics, economics, companies, tech) and takes a small position on the first prints, betting that early prices on fresh markets are sloppy before attention arrives.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| categories | ["Politics","Economics","Companies","Science and Technology"] |
| count | 1 |
| max_entry_price | 15 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
2–27
Open
2
Positions
31
Realized
$-3.96
Marked
$-2.43
Fees
$0.86
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 2 | 20 signals | p̂ 0.2 → 0.05 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.