Track record / methodology

/ neighbor_no

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

The closing-bell trade from the other side of the book: in the last minutes of each hour it buys NO on the brackets next to the one the price sits in — brackets the price is very unlikely to reach but which still trade above zero.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_edge 3

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
182–144
Open
0
Positions
326
Realized
$-22.01
Marked
$-22.01
Fees
$3.71

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 9 3 signals p̂ 0.9 → 0.67
bucket 10 317 signals p̂ 0.97 → 0.56
bucket 11 8 signals p̂ 1.03 → 0.63
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.