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What it does
The closing-bell trade from the other side of the book: in the last minutes of each hour it buys NO on the brackets next to the one the price sits in — brackets the price is very unlikely to reach but which still trade above zero.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| min_edge | 3 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
182–144
Open
0
Positions
326
Realized
$-22.01
Marked
$-22.01
Fees
$3.71
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 9 | 3 signals | p̂ 0.9 → 0.67 |
| bucket 10 | 317 signals | p̂ 0.97 → 0.56 |
| bucket 11 | 8 signals | p̂ 1.03 → 0.63 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.