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What it does
Trades purely on the nightly-refit direction models: when the model's probability for a 15-minute window disagrees with the market by 25+ points, it buys the model's side. Smaller disagreements are recorded as watch-only signals, building the evidence file on whether the models deserve capital.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
74–372
Open
0
Positions
446
Realized
$-21.65
Marked
$-21.65
Fees
$0.66
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 5 | 188 signals | p̂ 0.48 → 0.18 |
| bucket 6 | 254 signals | p̂ 0.52 → 0.16 |
| bucket 7 | 3 signals | p̂ 0.64 → 0.33 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.