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What it does
Longshots are systematically overpriced across betting markets (the favorite-longshot bias): a 4-cent YES is usually worth less than 4 cents. This buys NO in the mid-90s on liquid markets near resolution, collecting the bias a few cents at a time; the rare longshot that hits is the cost of the harvest.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| exits | {"stop_loss_frac":0.3,"take_profit_mult":99.0} |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
21–0
Open
1
Positions
22
Realized
$0.51
Marked
$0.48
Fees
$0.24
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 10 | 24 signals | p̂ 0.94 → 1.0 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.