Track record / methodology

/ ladder_arb

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Pure arbitrage on price-range ladders: exactly one bracket must win, so if buying one YES in every bracket costs less than the guaranteed $1 payout (after fees), that difference is locked profit regardless of where the price goes.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
exits {"stop_loss_frac":0.0,"take_profit_mult":99.0}
symbols ["BTC","ETH"]

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
0–30
Open
0
Positions
30
Realized
$-4.09
Marked
$-4.09
Fees
$0.61

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 10 24 signals p̂ 1.0 → 0.08
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.