/ hourly_range_sniper

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Late in each hour, uses years of hourly candle history to estimate the chance the price finishes inside a given bracket. Buys YES on brackets the market sells cheaper than that historical probability.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only

count	1
min_edge	15
regimes	["calm","normal"]

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L

61–194

Open

Positions

255

Realized

$-48.18

Marked

$-48.18

Fees

$6.59

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket

bucket 2	9 signals	p̂ 0.18 → 0.11
bucket 3	35 signals	p̂ 0.25 → 0.03
bucket 4	55 signals	p̂ 0.35 → 0.16
bucket 5	49 signals	p̂ 0.45 → 0.18
bucket 6	27 signals	p̂ 0.54 → 0.37
bucket 7	22 signals	p̂ 0.65 → 0.36
bucket 8	28 signals	p̂ 0.74 → 0.43
bucket 9	27 signals	p̂ 0.85 → 0.59
bucket 10	15 signals	p̂ 0.93 → 0.6

Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.