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What it does
Dutch-book arbitrage on exactly-one-winner events (multi-candidate politics, entertainment, sports): if every YES together costs under $1 after fees, buying them all locks the difference; the NO mirror locks (N-1)x$1 baskets. Only fires on events that look complete — stable, aged member sets — since a hidden extra candidate is the one way to lose.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| exits | {"stop_loss_frac":0.0,"take_profit_mult":99.0} |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
0–0
Open
3
Positions
3
Realized
$0.00
Marked
$0.17
Fees
$0.07
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.