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What it does
Watches the public trade tape on 15-minute crypto markets. When takers are overwhelmingly hitting one side over the last few minutes, it joins that side at the at-the-money strike — following the money that pays to cross the spread.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| min_contracts | 40 |
| min_imbalance | 0.7 |
| regimes | ["calm","normal"] |
| window_s | 300 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
359–369
Open
0
Positions
728
Realized
$-4.57
Marked
$-4.57
Fees
$2.34
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 7 | 132 signals | p̂ 0.69 → 0.48 |
| bucket 8 | 596 signals | p̂ 0.74 → 0.5 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.