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What it does
Reads the majors' 5-minute candles and, only in the final minutes of the hour, measures a short-horizon price thrust. It shifts the historical hourly range distribution by that drift and buys the range bucket the shift makes cheap — momentum mode leans with the thrust, reversion mode fades it.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| min_edge | 6 |
| symbols | ["BTC"] |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
24–188
Open
28
Positions
240
Realized
$8.03
Marked
$8.88
Fees
$1.02
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 1 | 32 signals | p̂ 0.09 → 0.09 |
| bucket 2 | 68 signals | p̂ 0.15 → 0.04 |
| bucket 3 | 51 signals | p̂ 0.25 → 0.1 |
| bucket 4 | 37 signals | p̂ 0.34 → 0.16 |
| bucket 5 | 22 signals | p̂ 0.44 → 0.18 |
| bucket 8 | 1 signals | p̂ 0.77 → 1.0 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.