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What it does
The other half of the favorite-longshot bias: strong favorites (78-92c) historically win more often than their price implies. Backs liquid non-crypto favorites near resolution — the natural partner of longshot_fade.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
26–15
Open
1
Positions
42
Realized
$-10.07
Marked
$-10.09
Fees
$0.71
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 9 | 27 signals | p̂ 0.84 → 0.59 |
| bucket 10 | 18 signals | p̂ 0.93 → 0.67 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.