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What it does
Minutes after a scheduled macro release (FOMC, payrolls), the number is known but hourly brackets still price pre-release uncertainty. Buys the bracket the price settled into — the prediction-market version of the post-event IV crush.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| min_edge | 6 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
1–2
Open
0
Positions
3
Realized
$0.06
Marked
$0.06
Fees
$0.06
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 7 | 2 signals | p̂ 0.67 → 0.0 |
| bucket 8 | 1 signals | p̂ 0.7 → 1.0 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.