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What it does
Mirrors fresh signals from strategies the calibration table proves UNDERCONFIDENT (realized win rate beats predicted probability on 30+ samples) — turning calibration measurement into capital allocation.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
0–7
Open
0
Positions
7
Realized
$-1.48
Marked
$-1.48
Fees
$0.03
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 4 | 3 signals | p̂ 0.37 → 0.33 |
| bucket 5 | 3 signals | p̂ 0.45 → 0.0 |
| bucket 7 | 1 signals | p̂ 0.62 → 0.0 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.