Track record / methodology

/ daily_bell

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

In the final hours before daily "close above $X" markets settle, strikes far from the current price are near-certainties that often still trade a few cents from their extreme. Buys the near-certain side for the last cents.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_edge 3

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
677–362
Open
4
Positions
1043
Realized
$866.59
Marked
$867.26
Fees
$18.05

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 10 1050 signals p̂ 0.96 → 0.43
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.