Track record / methodology

/ crypto_threshold

Typical horizon: MULTI-DAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Compares the live BTC price to "Bitcoin above $X" markets. When the market's price implies much lower odds than where spot actually is, it buys the cheap side.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_edge 20

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
0–11
Open
1
Positions
12
Realized
$-4.82
Marked
$-4.94
Fees
$0.78
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.