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What it does
Watches linked Kalshi/Polymarket pairs from the spread radar: when Polymarket reprices sharply while Kalshi sits still, information landed there first. Buys the Kalshi side toward the leader's new price.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
29–27
Open
2
Positions
58
Realized
$-1.95
Marked
$-1.81
Fees
$0.60
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 6 | 1 signals | p̂ 0.6 → 0.0 |
| bucket 7 | 26 signals | p̂ 0.65 → 0.65 |
| bucket 8 | 26 signals | p̂ 0.74 → 0.46 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.