Track record / methodology

/ conditional_probability

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Fuses the calendar and volatility-regime edges into one joint conditional distribution: the body distribution of, e.g., Friday 14:00 UTC candles that follow a big move has its own shape. Per open range bucket it scores that joint P(settle in bucket) against the ask and buys the largest edge, falling back through (hour,regime) -> (dow) -> (hour) -> global marginals when a joint cell is too thin to trust.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
min_edge 10
symbols ["BTC","ETH","SOL","XRP","DOGE"]

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
0–0
Open
7
Positions
7
Realized
$0.00
Marked
$-2.36
Fees
$0.06
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.