Track record / methodology

/ closing_bell

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

In the final minutes of each hourly market, buys the bracket the price is currently sitting in when it is near-certain to stay there but still trades a few cents below fair — collecting small, frequent edges at settlement.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_edge 3

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
53–117
Open
0
Positions
170
Realized
$-29.42
Marked
$-29.42
Fees
$2.98

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 9 119 signals p̂ 0.87 → 0.19
bucket 10 51 signals p̂ 0.95 → 0.59
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.