Track record / methodology

/ candle_prob_mispricing

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

The direct trade of the candle-probability analytics: for every open hourly range bucket it asks the historical hourly-body distribution how often price actually settles inside that bucket (point-in-time, conditioned on the settlement hour), and buys YES wherever that empirical probability beats the bucket's ask by enough to clear fees. The general, engine-driven scanner the specialised candle strategies (sniper, reversion, expansion) are refinements of.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1
min_edge 8
symbols ["BTC","ETH","SOL","XRP","DOGE"]

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
0–0
Open
9
Positions
9
Realized
$0.00
Marked
$-2.67
Fees
$0.06
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.