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What it does
A deliberately edge-free sentinel: once a day after 15:00 UTC it buys one contract of the nearest-expiry BTC hourly market priced closest to 50c and holds to settlement. Its long-run stats are known in advance (~50% wins, cost of half the spread plus fees, exactly one trade a day), so any drift flags infrastructure problems — missed ticks, bad fills, pricing drift — not market alpha. Paper-only by hard guard; never live-approvable.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
| exits | {"stop_loss_frac":0.0,"take_profit_mult":99.0} |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
2–11
Open
1
Positions
14
Realized
$-0.94
Marked
$-1.07
Fees
$0.27
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 5 | 13 signals | p̂ 0.5 → 0.23 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.