Track record / methodology

/ box_arb

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Pure arbitrage within a single market: YES plus NO always pays exactly $1, so whenever a crossed or stale book lets both sides be bought for less than $1 after fees, the difference is locked profit.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
exits {"stop_loss_frac":0.0,"take_profit_mult":99.0}

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
848–1104
Open
10
Positions
1962
Realized
$19.24
Marked
$18.76
Fees
$35.60

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 10 1957 signals p̂ 1.0 → 0.44
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.