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What it does
Pure arbitrage within a single market: YES plus NO always pays exactly $1, so whenever a crossed or stale book lets both sides be bought for less than $1 after fees, the difference is locked profit.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| exits | {"stop_loss_frac":0.0,"take_profit_mult":99.0} |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
848–1104
Open
10
Positions
1962
Realized
$19.24
Marked
$18.76
Fees
$35.60
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 10 | 1957 signals | p̂ 1.0 → 0.44 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.