Track record / methodology

/ alt_follower

Typical horizon: INTRADAY • Season 1 — all time

What it does

Tests whether a BTC 5-minute move drags the alts (ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE) a few minutes later: on a completed 5m bar where BTC and an alt both jump the same way, it follows that direction on the alt's 15-minute market while it still prices near 50/50. Disabled — the co-move is simultaneous, not lagged, so there's no fee-clearing edge.

Key parameters

behavior-shaping settings only
count 1

Record (fee-inclusive, this season)

W–L
6–5
Open
3
Positions
14
Realized
$0.43
Marked
$1.67
Fees
$0.04

Calibration

predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket
bucket 6 1 signals p̂ 0.59 → 1.0
bucket 7 7 signals p̂ 0.64 → 0.57
bucket 8 3 signals p̂ 0.74 → 0.33
Caveats: All results shown are simulated (paper) trading performance, not actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled (Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment advice — see the full disclaimer.