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What it does
Tests whether a BTC 5-minute move drags the alts (ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE) a few minutes later: on a completed 5m bar where BTC and an alt both jump the same way, it follows that direction on the alt's 15-minute market while it still prices near 50/50. Disabled — the co-move is simultaneous, not lagged, so there's no fee-clearing edge.
Key parameters
behavior-shaping settings only| count | 1 |
Record (fee-inclusive, this season)
W–L
6–5
Open
3
Positions
14
Realized
$0.43
Marked
$1.67
Fees
$0.04
Calibration
predicted vs realized win rate, by confidence bucket| bucket 6 | 1 signals | p̂ 0.59 → 1.0 |
| bucket 7 | 7 signals | p̂ 0.64 → 0.57 |
| bucket 8 | 3 signals | p̂ 0.74 → 0.33 |
Caveats:
All results shown are simulated (paper) trading
performance, not
actual trading, unless explicitly labeled live. Fees and slippage are modeled
(Kalshi's taker fee formula plus 1¢ slippage), which cannot fully reflect real
market impact or liquidity constraints. Past performance, simulated or actual, is
not indicative of future results. Parameters shown are the current configuration
and change over time as the strategy is tuned. Nothing on this page is investment
advice — see the full disclaimer.